Natural gas prices collapsed earlier this month due to one of the coolest Augusts on record for key US natural gas cooling demand regions, coupled with no Gulf hurricanes, only to rally back because of two recent friendly EIA gas storage data releases.
The next two EIA numbers should be more bearish due to the incessant cool weather that will last into early September. Does a cool August, along with a developing weak La Niña portend a possible cold winter?
Or… will it be warm again?
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In the meantime, this video below explores all of the climatic variables that Best Weather looks at to predict Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes. Why has the hurricane season been relatively tame so far? Will this change? After all, US hurricane strikes can have a big impact on certain sections of the economy and affect commodities such as crude oil, natural gas and cotton. There have also been some instances in which an active US hurricane season has interfered with soybean harvesting in the deep South, but perhaps, not this year.
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
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